Letters category: HCG Mailings

Happy Presidents Day!

As you know, Presidents Day was originally known as “Washington’s Birthday” in honor of America’s first president, who was born on February 22nd. In many regions, Abraham Lincoln’s birthday (February 12) is also celebrated.

Over the years, the holiday has expanded to become a celebration of all presidents—hence the name “Presidents Day.” And while Washington and Lincoln still tend to get the most press, we think it’s good to remember that many others have served as Chief Executive, too. So many of the rights, freedoms, and privileges we enjoy today are due to men and women whose names and deeds are shrouded by history. This is even true of presidents. Some presidents were better than others were, of course, but all deserve to be commemorated.

Sadly, some presidents were unable to serve for very long due to their untimely deaths. This has often rendered them mere footnotes in history; the answer to a trivia question and nothing more. And yet even these presidents were able to accomplish important things during their time in office. So for this Presidents Day, we thought we could take a brief look at who a few of these men were and what they did.

William Henry Harrison (9th President from March 4 to April 4, 1841)

Harrison holds two unfortunate records: he was the first president to die in office, and the president with the shortest tenure in United States history. Actually, Harrison holds three records, because he is also known for delivering the longest inaugural address on record. The speech lasted almost two hours, and was given on a very cold and rainy day in early March.

About 22 days after the inauguration, Harrison came down with what seemed to be a bad cold. His doctors did everything they could, but Harrison soon grew worse. He died 9 days later, only a month into his term. Scientists now think he succumbed to typhoid fever as a result of drinking contaminated water.

Because he died so early into his presidency, Harrison never had the chance to do much of note other than call a special session of Congress. But there is some evidence that he would have been a very active president. From the start, Harrison was committed to reforming how the government was run, visiting every federal department to see how it operated and how it could be improved. He also seemed intent on making the presidency a more independent office, one that would not be subservient to powerful individuals in Congress and elsewhere.

His last words were made to his doctor, but historians think they were intended for Vice President Tyler: “Sir, I wish you understand the true principles of the government. I wish them carried out. I ask nothing more.”

Zachary Taylor (12th President from March 4, 1849 – July 9, 1850)

Like Harrison, Taylor was a nationally recognized war hero. His reputation was what effectively catapulted him to the White House, as he was a man without a firm political ideology. He took office during a tumultuous time in American history. The southern states were making increasingly loud noises about seceding, while the three new territories acquired during the Mexican-American War were all demanding statehood.

Despite owning slaves himself, Taylor did not wish to see slavery expanded to the new territories. His solution was to admit California to the Union as a free state, which would give the other non-slavery states more power in Congress. Taylor also worked to ensure New Mexico remained a distinct territory rather than be incorporated into Texas. Finally, Taylor proved to be a surprising defender of religious freedom, promising the Mormon Church that they would be allowed to continue practicing their beliefs in relative independence within the newly organized Utah Territory.

Unfortunately, Taylor died of cholera only a year into his presidency. His last words summed up a lifetime of service to the country. “I am about to die. I expect the summons very soon. I have tried to discharge all my duties faithfully, and I regret nothing.”

James A. Garfield (President from March 4, 1881 to September 19, 1881)

Garfield, our nation’s 20th president, was fated to serve only a little longer than Harrison. But, like Harrison, there is evidence that he intended to be an active, transformative president, and he was able to launch an ambitious agenda before he died.

For much of the 19th century, the government operated on something called the “spoils system.” You’ve heard of the phrase “To the victor go the spoils”? That describes how the government used to work. Whichever party won the presidential election made key appointments based solely off of who their friends were, or who had helped them gain power. Garfield (and his predecessor, Hayes) worked to change that by instituting a merit system where only people who met certain qualifications could be considered for government jobs.

Hayes was also somewhat ahead of his time when it came to civil rights. In his inaugural address, he announced a plan to make full citizens of all African Americans, with more secure voting rights and access to a better education.

Sadly, Garfield’s work in undoing the spoils system contributed to his death. Charles Guiteau, a former supporter who had been denied an ambassadorship he wasn’t qualified for, assassinated Garfield in a train station less than a year after the election. Among his last words were, “My work is done.”

Forty-four men have served our country as president. (Donald Trump, of course, is currently the 45th.) Some served for eight years, some for far less. Some had the talent and time to accomplish great things. Others did not. But to quote Zachary Taylor, everyone who has ever served took on perhaps the hardest job in the world and “tried to discharge their duties faithfully.” For that, they deserve remembrance and respect.

So this Presidents Day, spare a thought for not just the Washingtons and the Lincolns, but all those who tried to carry out “the true principles of government.”

On behalf of all of us here at Hudock Capital, we wish you a happy Presidents Day!

Sincerely,

Barbara B. Hudock, CIMA®, CPM®
Chief Executive Officer
Founding Partner

Michael J.Hudock, Jr., CPM®
President and Founding Partner
Wealth Consultant

20,000 DOW

Imagine you are driving a car down a lonely highway at night. You have no idea where you’re going or why you started driving in the first place. Because the sun isn’t out, and because you don’t have a compass, you have no idea which direction you’re going. It’s disorienting, but you have no choice but to keep driving—because at least if you keep driving, you know you’ll end up somewhere.

Then, all of a sudden, you see it: a green sign on the side of the road that reads

MILE 32

That seems encouraging, but a few minutes later, you see another sign that says “Mile 33.” Then Mile 34, 35, and so on. The brief spark of excitement you felt is gone, because it doesn’t take long for you to realize the truth:

Milestones tell you where you are. But they can’t tell you where you’re going.

Why am I asking you to imagine all this? Because it’s a useful exercise in light of the recent news out of Wall Street: for the first time ever, the Dow has hit 20,000.

The media always makes a big fuss whenever an index (or an average, as the Dow technically is) hits a milestone. That’s because milestones are inherently interesting to humans. They suggest a good story, and humans have always been suckers for a good story.

But for investors, market milestones shouldn’t be seen as particularly meaningful.

Of course, that’s not to say milestones serve no purpose. After all, if you’re driving down the highway and you do know where you’re headed, a milestone becomes a useful barometer of your progress. Similarly, if you’ve set a goal for yourself, milestones can be a great motivator. A form of encouragement to keep going.

As far as the markets go, however, a milestone can be a bit like fool’s gold: shiny and exciting, but of little value in and of itself. It can even be a little dangerous, because it suggests a story while masquerading as a statistic. Because it fools us into thinking it’s the needle on a compass rather than a mere measurement of distance traveled. (A number feels high, so the markets will probably keep going higher! Or, a number feels low, and will probably just keep getting lower!) But really, milestones tell us no such thing. They only let us know where we are. Not where we’re going.

The circumstances behind this particular milestone confirm this. Ask just about any market analyst and they’ll tell you the Dow hit 20,000 by riding a wave of optimism about President Trump’s economic agenda. Take this line from a recent New York Times article:

The recent postelection surge toward 20,000 has been driven by what investors are calling a reflation trade, or a bet that the economy under President Trump will benefit from proposed tax cuts and a move toward more aggressive government spending.1

Or this one from CNN:

Wall Street is clearly betting that Trump’s plans to slash taxes, ramp up infrastructure spending and cut regulation will make the American economy grow faster.2

The key word in both passages is “bet.” Investors don’t know how much of Trump’s agenda will actually be enacted, or if it will work, or if it’s even possible. They’re simply betting on it. This is a perfectly natural thing to do, because investors have always tried to get ahead by setting educated expectations for the future.

But when that big, round 20,000 is achieved on the back of a bet, it doesn’t look quite so momentous, does it? It tells us what investors are doing and feeling right now. It tells us where we are. But it doesn’t tell us where we’re going.

The point of all this is not to say that the Dow hitting 20,000 is a bad thing. The point is that it’s just a milestone, just a story, and we should be properly cautious about both. That’s especially true with regards to the Dow. As you probably know, the Dow is comprised of only 30 companies. Important companies, to be sure, but hardly representative of the overall economy. So 20,000 is not only a story, but a fairly limited one. It would be like watching only the first 30 seconds of the Super Bowl, and then trying to predict the outcome.

So as you read about this milestone or any other, don’t allow yourself to get too caught up in the story that goes with it. Don’t try to predict where we’re going just by looking at where we are.

Instead, do this:

Whenever the markets hit a new milestone, turn off the TV or shut down that internet browser. Try to tune out the noise. Then, focus on your own personal financial journey. Ask yourself: “Do I still know which direction I’m heading? Has anything changed that may have put me off track?” In essence, pull out your personal compass and see which way the needle is pointing. Are you going north or south? Then, make a list of your own milestones. What great things have you achieved lately? How far have you come? And what milestones are you looking forward to reaching over the next few years?

By doing this every time the financial media starts selling the latest story, you’ll actually be setting a wonderful habit: consistently reviewing your financial situation and planning your financial future. If there’s anything we’ve learned over the course of our careers, it’s that this is the road to success.

After all, milestones are only meaningful when you know where you’re going … and on the road to success, the only story that matters is yours.

We at Hudock Capital will continue watching the markets, tracking your portfolio, and keeping your financial compass pointing north. In the meantime, please let us know if you have any questions or if there is ever anything we can do to help you work toward your own personal milestones!

Sincerely,

Barbara B. Hudock, CIMA®, CPM®
Chief Executive Officer
Founding Partner

Michael J. Hudock, Jr., CPM®
President and Founding Partner
Wealth Consultant

Sources:

1 Landon Thomas, “The Dow Hit 20,000. Now What?” The New York Times, January 25, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/…/dow-20000-stock-market-milestone.…

2 Matt Egan, “Boom: Dow hits 20,000 for first time ever.” CNN Money, January 25, 2017. http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/25/investing/dow-20000-stocks/

2016: The Year in Review

Every January, it’s customary to take a look back at the year that was.  What were the highlights?  What were the “lowlights”?  What got us to where we are today?  What were the events we’ll always remember?

Most importantly, what did we learn?

To answer that, let’s briefly recap some of the most notable events of 2016.  Some have to do with politics and some with the markets.  We’ll even throw a little “sports talk” in.  Then see if you can spot a common theme.

Early Market Volatility

Right off the bat, there were signs 2016 would be an interesting year when the Dow^® got off to its worst start since 1897.¹  January saw the Dow, S&P 500^®, Chinese stock market, and oil prices all tumble dramatically.  Analysts started talking about how 2016 would probably be a nasty year for stocks, and some even predicted it to be the beginning of a bear market.  Remember that last sentence, because we’re going to come back to it in a minute.

Brexit

The markets endured a topsy-turvy month or two, but by the middle of March, they had recovered to the point that returns were positive for the year, defying many analysts’ expectations.  The next few months were relatively unremarkable until summer rolled around and the world was confronted by a new word to learn: Brexit. 

Here’s a quick synopsis: on Thursday, June 23, the United Kingdom held a referendum over whether to leave the European Union.  In the lead up, various polls indicated a close contest, but with a slight edge to the side voting to remain in the EU.  Most poll watchers expected that “remain” would indeed be the ultimate outcome.  In the end, over 33 million people went to the polls, and when the dust cleared, the result took almost everyone by surprise: the UK had voted to leave.

A big change in the status quo almost always leads to economic uncertainty, and Brexit has caused a lot of uncertainty.  In fact, the EU and the UK are both still trying to answer questions about how the split will occur, how much of a relationship the two entities will still have, and what this will do to their respective economies.

As you might expect, that uncertainty created angst in the global markets as well.  The Dow, for example, slid over 600 points in light of the news.²  Again, it looked as if investors might have to weather a rough second half of the year.

A few weeks later, the Dow achieved its first record close since May of 2015.³

U.S. Elections

On this side of the pond, we experienced our own political surprise when Donald Trump became the 45^th president of the United States.

As with Brexit, the news came as a shock to most pollsters and political analysts, who had Hillary Clinton as the favorite going into the election.  Nevertheless, Trump won the Electoral College handily.

Since then, the markets have gone on a tear.  Expectations that a Trump administration—and a Republican Congress—will lead to higher interest rates, lower taxes, and fewer regulations have driven a tremendous climb in all four of the major U.S. stock indexes.  The Dow recently hit 19,000 for the first time, and as of this writing, is closing in on 20,000.

A far cry from when analysts warned of a possible bear market in 2016.

Sports

Let’s shift gears for a moment.

While it didn’t get much coverage over here, sporting history was made in May when Leicester City, a relatively small soccer club in England, won the Premier League championship for the first time in their 132-year history.  It was a stunning accomplishment—and one nobody could have predicted.

Here in the U.S., we saw our own history made a month later when the Cleveland Cavaliers defied expectations by winning the NBA championship.  It was the team’s first ever title, and the first major trophy won by a Cleveland-based team since 1964.  The Cavs were also the first team to come back from a 3-1 deficit.

As exciting as that series was, it pales in comparison to what the Chicago Cubs did a few months later.  Not only did they come back from their own 3-1 deficit in the MLB World Series, they also won their first championship in over a century.

So what can we learn from all this?

Have you spotted the common theme yet?  If not, here it is: all of these events went contrary to most expectations.  In 2016, the unexpected kept coming true.

Many analysts thought 2016 would be a bad year for the markets.  We saw the opposite.  Many analysts thought Brexit would never happen.  It did.  Many analysts thought Donald Trump would lose.  He won.  Even in sports, most predicted Golden State to win the NBA finals.  Most figured the Cubs would fail to overcome a 3-1 deficit.

You get the picture.

The reason we point all this out isn’t to criticize the various pollsters, pundits, and prognosticators who got these events wrong.  In most cases, they had good reasons for thinking the way they did.  They used history, statistics, and demographics to shape their expectations.  They gave educated, well-researched opinions.

And yet, they were still wrong.

So what can we learn from this?  Two things:

1. Expect the unexpected.  Don’t assume that what seems most likely to happen is guaranteed to happen.
2. For investors, planning is better than predicting.

You’ve probably heard us say both these things before, but 2016 proved them.  As your financial advisors, we spend a lot of time researching the markets.  Our job is not to predict what’s going to happen, but to help you plan for what could happen.  That’s why, as your Wealth Partners with Purpose, we have devoted a great deal of time with you to plan well.  We constantly monitor your portfolio to see how it’s measuring up to your goals and your risk tolerance.  And we regularly review, and as necessary, make revisions to your portfolio to account for market conditions and changes in your goals.  Together, we’ve developed a comprehensive investment strategy that takes a long-term view, which we believe is the best way to plan for the unexpected.

Consistent with this strategy, we begin each year by rebalancing your portfolio to make sure that it continues to reflect the type of diversification, and the level of risk tolerance, that corresponds to your goals. As a result, you will see a number of trades in your account this month as we implement the rebalancing for your portfolio. Should you have any questions regarding any of these trades, or the rebalancing process, please do not hesitate to contact us. The best way for us to plan for the unexpected is to continue to work together to implement your long-term investment strategy. Together, we have planned well and should look forward confidently to the year ahead.

On behalf of everyone here at Hudock Capital, have a happy New Year!  Thanks again for being such a valued client.  Please let us know if there’s ever anything we can do for you.

Sincerely,

Barbara B. Hudock, CIMA®, CPM®
Chief Executive Officer
Founding Partner

Michael J. Hudock, Jr., CPM®
President and Founding Partner
Wealth Consultant

Sources:

¹ Matt Egan, “Dow has worst four-day start to a year on record,” CNN Money, January 7, 2016.  http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/investing/stocks-markets-dow-china/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

² Jethro Mullen, Ivana Kottasova, Patrick Gillespie, “Dow plunges over 600 points as UK earthquake crushes global markets,” CNN Money, June 24, 2016.  http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/23/investing/eu-referendum-markets/index.html?iid=EL

³ “2016 The Year in Review,” The Wall Street Journal, December 2016.  http://www.wsj.com/graphics/year-in-review-2016/

Investment advisory services are offered through Hudock Capital Group, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor.  Securities offered through representatives of Comprehensive Asset Management and Servicing, Inc. (“CAMAS”), 2001 Rte. 46, Parsippany, NJ, 07054, member FINRA/SIPC (800-637-3211).

Hudock Capital Group is independent of CAMAS. (01/17)

During this season of Thanksgiving, our thoughts turn to our many blessings—and chief among them are friends, like you, with whom we are fortunate to share our time and our lives.  We are so grateful for the gift of your friendship and so thankful for the opportunity to celebrate this season with you.

As we reflect upon Thanksgiving, there are many ways to express our thanks, our humility and our gratitude.  Over the years, many people have eloquently expressed their thoughts on giving thanks and being grateful.  It’s hard to choose favorites, but we thought it would be nice to collect some of those thoughts that we found to be most meaningful and share them with you.  Please feel free to share these quotes with your family and friends.

A few of our favorites for this special season:

Samuel Adams, First Official Thanksgiving Proclamation: It is therefore recommended … to set apart Thursday the eighteenth day of December next, for solemn thanksgiving and praise, that with one heart and one voice the good people may express the grateful feelings of their hearts and consecrate themselves to the service of their divine benefactor.

Irving Berlin: Got no check books, got no banks. Still I’d like to express my thanks—I got the sun in the morning and the moon at night.

Anne Frank: I do not think of all the misery, but of the glory that remains. Go outside into the fields, nature and the sun, go out and seek happiness in yourself and in God. Think of the beauty that again and again discharges itself within and without you and be happy.

Ralph Waldo Emerson:

For each new morning with its light,
For rest and shelter of the night,
For health and food, for love and friends,
For everything Thy goodness sends.

John Fitzgerald Kennedy: As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.

William Faulkner: Gratitude is a quality similar to electricity: it must be produced and discharged and used up in order to exist at all.

Each of us at Hudock Capital is thankful for you and we wish you and yours a very Happy Thanksgiving.  Enjoy a wonderful holiday with your family and friends!

Sincerely,

Barbara B. Hudock, CIMA®, CPM®                Michael J. Hudock, Jr., CPM®
Chief Executive Officer                                     President and Founding Partner
Founding Partner                                             Wealth Consultant

The results are in and Donald Trump will be the 45^th President of the United States.  Regardless of how you voted, you may be wondering as an investor what the election outcome means for your investment portfolio.

Historically, presidential elections haven’t affected the markets in the long term.  That’s partially due to the fact that the president is one person, and it’s more likely that the government will react to the markets than the other way around!  Plus, over the long term, markets are efficient.  Any short-term volatility will likely even out as prices take into account in real time not only the election but a whole host of factors, both domestically and internationally.

That said, even as the results of the election are digested, and the markets swing, we urge you to remain calm.  As your Wealth Partners with Purpose, we have built your portfolio to weather the market’s short-term ups and downs so you can realize long-term returns.

We hope this message helps relieve any anxiety you may be feeling because of potential post-election market volatility.  As always, if you have questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Warmest regards,

Barbara B. Hudock, CIMA®, CPM®                    Michael J. Hudock, Jr., CPM®
Chief Executive Officer                                         President and Founding Partner
Founding Partner                                                 Wealth Consultant

The Story Behind the Song: America the Beautiful

Every Memorial Day, we reflect on the heroism, bravery, and sacrifice shown by the men and women who gave their lives for our country.  We visit their gravesites.  We read books about them.  We talk about them.  We hear speeches about them.  But however we commemorate the day, we do our best to remember all those who helped create, maintain, and defend our nation.

Of all such commemorations, the one Abraham Lincoln gave on a bright morning back in November, 1863 stands to me as the finest.  I’m referring, of course, to the Gettysburg Address.

There was no such thing as Memorial Day back then, and indeed, when we think of the Gettysburg Address nowadays, it’s mostly to help schoolchildren memorize it word for word.  But if you actually read the words, if you actually ponder what they mean, you’ll realize there’s never been a greater tribute to all those who died while serving our country.

Here is what Lincoln said:

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to      dedicate a portion of that field as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate, we can not consecrate, we can not hallow this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our        poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to      the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored         dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this               nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

As you can see, I have bolded certain lines that I feel most apply to Memorial Day.  Reading his speech now, over 150 years later, I’m amazed at how simply and well Lincoln captured the meaning of Memorial Day.  The men and women who fought and fell at Bunker Hill, or Gettysburg, or Cantigny, Okinawa, Ia Drang, or Fallujah, truly did give their lives that our nation might live.  For that reason, nothing we do or say can sanctify their actions more than they themselves have already done.  While Lincoln underestimated the lasting power of his own words, he was correct when he said the world will little remember the things we say … but the things they did will never be forgotten.

Something else in Lincoln’s speech stands out to me.  It is for us the living to be dedicated to the unfinished work that they began.  When I think of what all our nation’s heroes died for—freedom and liberty, union and equality, independence and security—I realize that our country is still very much a work in progress.  The rights we as Americans hold dear must be constantly protected and advanced.  The men and women we remember every Memorial Day didn’t give their lives thinking our nation’s issues would be settled forever.  They died knowing there would be others after them to continue the fight.

And who are those “others”?  They’re us.

For that reason, I read the Gettysburg Address as a message not just to the people of Lincoln’s era, but as a message for our generation, and our children’s generation, and every generation after us.  It is for us to resolve that our dead did not die in vain.  It is for us to ensure that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, not just once but continually.

So this Memorial Day, every Memorial Day, I will ask myself: how have I dedicated myself to the work?  What have I done to ensure they did not die in vain?  What can I yet do?

Asking those questions and constantly striving to find the answers is the best way I know to commemorate those who died in the armed forces.  It’s the best way I know to make the Gettysburg Address not just a historical speech, but a living message.  It’s the best way I know to make Memorial Day everything it can and should be.

It’s the best way I know to see that government of the people, by the people, and for the people, shall never perish from the earth.

However you commemorate the occasion, may Memorial Day be everything you want it to be.

In 1736, a young man named George Taylor emigrated from Ireland to Philadelphia.  With almost no money, Taylor had little choice but to indenture himself to an ironsmith in order to pay for his passage.  In those days, working as an indentured servant meant years of hard labor and little freedom, but it was a course thousands of Irish men and women were forced to take in order to live in the New World.

Forty years later, Taylor signed the Declaration of Independence.

There were 56 signers of the Declaration, but Taylor was one of only eight who had been born in a foreign land.  The fact that a poor Irish immigrant could rise to such a stage might seem incredible, but American history is filled with contributions made by Irish immigrants.

This month we celebrate St. Patrick’s Day.  As you probably know, St. Patrick’s Day can mean many things to many different people.  At its heart, the day is to honor the death of Saint Patrick, one of the most important figures in Irish history.  Children, of course, see it as a chance to wear green.  More recently, though, we’ve come to associate the holiday with a celebration of Irish culture in general.  To me, that’s a good thing—because Irish culture has had a profound influence on American culture, too!  For that reason, St. Patrick’s Day gives us the opportunity to acknowledge the contributions made by thousands of Irish Americans over the centuries.

Irish immigrants began settling in what would become the United States during the 17^th century.  By the time of the American Revolution, over 250,000 Irish people had settled here.  From the start, many of these brave men and women adopted the cause of Independence and went on to serve under George Washington during the Revolutionary War.  In fact, one British general stated that “half the Rebel Continental Army were from Ireland.”

The second great wave of Irish immigrants came during the 1840s during the Great Famine.  When a disease struck Ireland’s potato crop, a million people left the island to get away from the mass starvation taking place.  Thousands of them came to the United States, where they settled in cities such as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia.

When the Civil War broke out a decade later, many Irishmen formed their own units, such as the famous Irish Brigade, one of the most celebrated units in Army history.  Some historians estimate that more than 140,000 soldiers were from Ireland, while many thousands more were of Irish descent.

But Irish immigrants didn’t just distinguish themselves on the battlefield.  From religion to music, from law enforcement to literature, and from food and drink to sports, Irish culture has influenced many of the traditions, customs, symbols, and sayings we know so well today.

Perhaps the biggest influence the Irish have had on American history is in the halls of government.  Besides George Taylor, two other Declaration-signers were Irish, while five were sons of Irish immigrants.  Most significantly, President Andrew Jackson was born to Irish parents, and twenty one other presidents have had Irish blood in their veins.

So as you wear green, count the leaves on a clover, or take in your local parade this St. Patrick’s Day, remember that it’s not just the Emerald Isle we’re celebrating—but the link between those green shores and ours.

From all of us here at Hudock Capital Group, we wish you a happy St. Patrick’s Day!

January 2016.  October 1987. 2008.  2001-2002.  For those who remember, 1973-1974.

What do those dates have in common?  Those are all times in the “recent” (everything is relative depending on your age…) past that bring terror to our hearts.  They are all times in which the markets spun in irrational and uncontrollable ways, teasing us and taunting us, and showing us who really is boss.  No matter what anyone says, it is not possible to legally time the market and benefit.  A stopped clock is right twice a day.  There are some times when a money manager or analyst will “get it right.”  It’s rare to see the same analyst/money manager get it right twice.

Our emotions take us away on roller coaster rides that don’t end… until we least expect it.  The greatest challenge with trying to time the market, and move in and out of the market at presumably highs and lows, is that we don’t know until we’re looking back where those highs and lows are.

We have created well-diversified portfolios for you that we believe will outperform the relevant benchmarks (indices) over long periods of time.  We rebalance your portfolios as opportunities are available.  We have to recognize that in order to benefit in the up markets, we must tolerate and ride through the challenging times — the times that make us doubt the long-term historical performance of the markets.  Is it over?

Is it different this time?

If you weren’t aware, January 2016 has so far been the worst start of a year for the DOW since 1897.  That’s 119 years.  “According to estimates from Morningstar and AGF Investments, markets experience drops over 10% more frequently than they see gains over 10%.  Between January 1992 and December 2014, there were 77 weeks where the S&P 500 registered losses of more than 10%.  There were only 45 weeks with gains of over 10% during the time period.  The cumulative value of the losses over the 77 weeks was -1096%.  The cumulative value of the gains over the aforementioned 45 weeks was 612%.”

In January of 1992, the S & P 500 was at 417.09.  It closed December 2014 at 2058.90. 

They go on to say, “This is why limiting downside risk can actually help investors win more in the long term. Investors can win more by losing less.  A steady approach that balances risk by diversified investment in both global equity and bond markets can help investors in limiting their losses.” (from Yahoo Finance “How You Can Win More By Losing Less,” November 20, 2015) 

Last year (2015) was one of the most difficult years to make money in the last 78 years. According to data from Societe Generale, “the best-performing asset class of 2015 was stocks, whose meager 2 percent total return (that is, including dividends) still surpasses those of long-term bonds, short-term Treasury bills and commodities.  These minimal gains make 2015 the worst year for finding returns since 1937, when the cash-like 3-month Treasury bill beat out other major asset classes with a return of 0.3 percent.”  Please see the link below for the article.

The market does not move predictably.  You are well diversified in your portfolio; however, in these markets, just about all assets classes are down and not showing any mercy as yet.  We believe that when we look back from 2026, this may very well be a great buying opportunity.  Just like March 2009, November 1987, 2003, and December 1974 when the DOW closed down 27.57% at 616.24.  Even at year-end 2008, the DOW was 8776.39.  The DOW, even after the 7% correction, is now at 16,346.04.

We care about your investment performance.  We have a strategy that we believe will work but we have to have patience in this market.  In my 41 years in this industry, I believe that our investment strategy is stronger than ever.  I have confidence that the strategy will carry us through these markets.

Let’s keep things in perspective.  (See the attached slide on Crisis and Events.)  Turn off your televisions and XM Radios and take a walk in the woods.

Please feel free to call us.  We look forward to talking to you.

Thanksgiving is our favorite time of the year.  Michael loves the football games and everything that comes with that.  Barbara loves the fall colors, the crisp mornings, walking in the fallen leaves, and MOSTLY, the end of Daylight Savings Time.

No matter what you like most about it, Thanksgiving is certainly a time of year that reminds us to reflect upon our incredible blessings:  living in this country, enjoying the freedoms afforded to us, having our families, our friends and daily opportunities to make a difference.

At this special time of year, all of us at Hudock Capital want to express our deep appreciation for you—your business, your friendship, and, most of all, your trust.  Without our clients, Hudock Capital would not exist.

We are grateful for the opportunity that you give us to devote our time and resources to serving our core purpose and passion:  to make a positive and profound difference in the lives of our clients and in the communities we serve.  It is a blessing and a trust that we cherish.

Thank you for allowing us to serve you.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.